On October 14, new Section 301 fees on Chinese-owned, Chinese-operated, and Chinese-built vessels entering U.S. ports take effect. China will retaliate the same day with matching fees on U.S.-linked ships. This is not a tariff on goods. It is a fee on the vessels themselves, charged per net registered ton.
U.S. fees start at $50 per net ton for Chinese-owned or -operated vessels and $18 per net ton for Chinese-built vessels from non-Chinese carriers. Both escalate annually through 2028. China’s reciprocal fees start at $56 per net ton, climbing to $157 by April 2028. Each side caps charges at five voyages per vessel per year, collected only at the first port of call.
The estimated cost to carriers in 2026: $3.2 billion. Zim, ONE, and CMA CGM are among the most exposed. Maersk, CMA CGM, Cosco, and OOCL say they repositioned fleets during the 180-day grace period to limit direct exposure. Repositioning does not eliminate cost. It redistributes it.
Also on the horizon: 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes and cargo handling equipment, effective November 9.
The question for shippers is not whether these fees will affect your freight costs. They will. The question is whether your carrier is absorbing them, passing them through, or quietly restructuring surcharges to cover them. If you import on trans-Pacific lanes and have not asked your carrier how Section 301 port fees are being handled, this week is the time.
USPS is losing ground on both sides
Two developments are reshaping the parcel competitive landscape, and both involve USPS losing volume it cannot easily replace.
Amazon is pulling away. The company plans to cut at least two-thirds of its USPS package volumes before its contract expires this month, according to the Wall Street Journal. Last year, USPS delivered more than a billion Amazon packages, roughly 15% of total USPS parcel volume. Amazon Logistics handled 6.3 billion parcels last year, close to USPS’s 6.9 billion. Analysts expect Amazon to overtake USPS as the country’s largest parcel carrier within a few years.
Meanwhile, Amazon is expanding its carrier services for other shippers. It launched LTL shipping labels through Amazon Buy Shipping in October, extending its logistics-as-a-service offering to sellers with heavy and bulky items. The line between Amazon’s captive network and the broader parcel market continues to blur.
UPS is taking USPS’s air network. UPS replaced FedEx as USPS’s primary air cargo provider after FedEx’s contract expired September 29. The deal was supposed to deliver savings and flexibility. Instead, the USPS Inspector General is already questioning its value, finding that USPS is moving half of its long-distance mail by air just to satisfy the UPS contract’s volume requirements. The IG urged USPS to consider terminating the contract early. USPS management disagreed.
For shippers, this matters because the competitive dynamics that determine your parcel pricing leverage are shifting. UPS gains network density. FedEx loses it. Amazon grows as both a competitor to the incumbents and an alternative carrier option. And USPS, which has served as the low-cost pressure valve in many multi-carrier strategies, is under financial stress from multiple directions at once.
Freight market: new numbers, same direction
Truckload contract rates are up 18% year over year, and the capacity needed to bring them back down is not being built. Two new reports this month put hard figures on a market that continues tightening heading into Q4.
Uber Freight’s Q3 Market Update shows truckload conditions stabilized after two volatile quarters of rate increases, but underlying constraints remain. Class 8 truck backlogs represent roughly nine months of production, and remaining 2026 build capacity is oversubscribed by approximately 35,000 units. Smaller carriers on thin margins could park equipment if fuel volatility persists, further constraining supply.
C.H. Robinson’s October report highlights the growing divergence between truckload and LTL. During the three-year downturn, larger LTL shipments migrated to truckload carriers on cheap capacity. As truckload costs rise, that freight is migrating back to LTL networks. LTL carriers are becoming more selective in the freight they accept, and LTL demand is expected to grow through year-end.
C.H. Robinson’s projected line-haul cost-per-mile increases for 2026 tell the story across modes: +30% for temperature-controlled, +31% for flatbed, +28% for dry van, all year-over-year.
Shippers who moved freight to truckload during the downturn are now caught between rising TL rates and pickier LTL carriers. If you have not modeled both modes against current pricing, the spread may surprise you.
What to watch
- October 14 — Section 301 port fees on Chinese vessels take effect; China reciprocal fees on U.S.-linked vessels take effect the same day
- October 15 — Amazon FBA holiday fulfillment fees begin (run through January 14, 2027)
- October 25 — UPS demand surcharges begin on air, Ground Residential, and Ground Saver
- October 26 — FedEx demand surcharges begin on express, residential, Home Delivery, and Ground Economy; average residential surcharges up 22-23% over 2025; a single package can stack the residential surcharge, the peak charge, and a volume-based demand charge; confirm your FedEx contract explicitly discounts demand surcharges or you are exposed
- October 28 — FedEx Corp. earnings (first full quarter without FedEx Freight on the books; FDXF now trades independently as of June 1 spin-off)
- November 9 — 100% tariff on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes and cargo handling equipment takes effect
- November 22-December 26/27 — Peak-of-peak window; highest surcharge rates at UPS and FedEx
- January 16/17, 2027 — UPS and FedEx peak surcharge programs end
- UPS 2027 GRI — Not yet announced. FedEx (5.9%) and DHL Express (5.9%) are already out. UPS has used 5.9% three years running and historically announces late October or early November. Watch for it
- Diesel — Energy ceasefire announced Oct 11 — if it holds, diesel could retreat from $6.20. If it doesn’t, Hormuz keeps prices elevated. Either way, model both scenarios.
This all hits next year’s budget. We wrote the playbook for that.
