The tariff landscape shifted again. On June 2, USTR issued findings from 60 simultaneous Section 301 investigations — and the proposed outcome is sweeping: additional ad valorem duties of 10% or 12.5% on virtually all U.S. imports from these 60 countries, representing over 99% of U.S. import volume.
The stated rationale is enforcement failures in forced labor. The practical implication is another tariff layer landing on top of whatever your current landed costs already look like.
What’s Actually Being Proposed
Of the 60 economies investigated, 54 have neither imposed nor effectively enforced a prohibition on forced labor imports. The remaining six — Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan — maintain prohibitions but have failed to enforce them effectively. All 60 are subject to the proposed action.
The duty rates break down by compliance posture:
- 10% for economies with an existing forced-labor import prohibition or reciprocal trade commitments
- 12.5% for all others
The proposal should be understood as country- and economy-based, not shipment-specific. That is, the tariffs would apply based on the country of origin and product scope, regardless of whether the importer can prove that a particular shipment is free of forced labor.
That last point matters. There’s no clean-hands carve-out. If your goods ship from a covered economy, the duty applies.
Why This Is Different From What Came Before
This isn’t just more tariffs. It’s a structural shift in how tariffs are being built.
The administration’s initiation of Section 301 investigations — launched on March 12, 2026, just weeks after the IEEPA ruling — represents a deliberate effort to establish a durable, legally defensible foundation for broad-based tariffs that does not depend on emergency powers or congressional reauthorization.
Unlike IEEPA or Section 122, Section 301 authorizes the imposition of duties in response to unreasonable foreign government practices that burden U.S. commerce and carries no inherent time limitation or rate cap.
Translation: these aren’t temporary emergency measures. If finalized, they won’t sunset automatically. Supply chain leaders who have been waiting out the tariff cycle need to recalibrate their assumptions.
What You Need to Do Right Now
The duties are not in effect yet — but the comment window is closing fast. Written comments are due by July 6, 2026. USTR will hold hearings on July 7, 2026.
For companies with significant import exposure, now is the time to act on three fronts:
1. Map your exposure by country of origin and HTS number.
Products listed in Annex A to the Federal Register notice would be outside the proposed action. Because Annex A is organized by Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) classification, importers should review it by tariff number rather than by product name. Don’t assume coverage — confirm it.
2. Quantify the cost impact.
Model the 10% and 12.5% duties as an additional tariff layer against your current freight and duty profiles. For high-volume importers, even a 10% incremental duty compounds fast. If you haven’t run the numbers, you’re guessing.
3. Review your logistics contracts and Incoterms.
Tariff pass-through clauses, carrier agreements, and carrier diversification strategies all look different when your landed cost assumptions shift by double digits. If your transportation contracts were negotiated under a different cost environment, they may no longer reflect your actual risk position.
The Bigger Picture
We’re watching two dynamics converge. First, a tariff environment that keeps adding layers — not replacing them. IEEPA tariffs, Section 122, and now Section 301 are not a sequential story; they’re a cumulative one. Second, a carrier pricing environment that moves in the same direction — costs go up fast, come down slow.
Shippers who are modeling only one of these dynamics are underestimating their exposure. Your transportation spend and your landed cost structure need to be reviewed together.
The comment deadline is July 6. The hearing is on July 7. After that, the rules could change — and there’s no guarantee the final rates stay at 10–12.5%.
If you need help modeling how these proposed duties interact with your current freight profile and carrier contracts, reach out to the ICC team. This is exactly the kind of analysis we do — so you’re not running blind when the next change lands.
___
H/t to our friends at Goldberg, Lowenstein & Weatherwax LLP (GDLSK) for flagging this development.
to receive our FREE white papers: